The German parliament’s narrow rejection of a controversial border control bill could have long-term implications for a nation largely seen as welcoming of foreign talent.

The Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) leader and front-runner to be next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, attempted to push through a non-binding motion on asylum policy last week, but only with the help of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

The deal broke the biggest taboo in German politics: working with the far-right. The bill was ultimately rejected by 350 votes to 338, with 160,000 Berliners taking to the streets to protest Merz’s attempt to reduce immigrant numbers and family reunion rights.

Immigration is a key issue in the upcoming federal election set for 23 February, and the outcome for foreign workers and their employers hangs in the balance. 

The CDU supports stricter border controls, rejects undocumented migrants, and wants to deter asylum seekers, while facilitating visas for skilled workers. 

The far-right AfD takes a more hardline approach, demanding strong border controls, rejecting asylum seekers, and allowing only tightly regulated skilled worker immigration in shortage fields.

Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) wants a balanced immigration policy, easing bureaucratic hurdles for foreign labour to ensure skilled worker migration aligns with labour market needs. 

Similarly, the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens advocate for humanitarian policies, European cooperation, and simplified process for skilled workers, students, and apprentices to enter Germany. 

The Left Party is pushing for easier recognition of foreign qualifications, and a dedicated migration ministry, while the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is calling for a pause on uncontrolled migration but wants integration programmes for refugees. 

“These differing positions will influence employer strategies,” Oppenhoff’s Alexandra Groth tells GML. “CDU’s focus on skilled labor visas may ease hiring for specific roles, while AfD’s restrictive stance could exacerbate labour shortages. 

“SPD and Green policies may provide a more diverse and accessible talent pool. Employers must watch post-election developments to adapt recruitment strategies effectively.”

Recent polling shows the CDU leads with 28% voters, followed by the AfD on 20%. The SPD (16%), Greens (15%), the Left Party (5%), and FDP and BSW (4%) trail behind.

Despite CDU and AfD leading the polls, a dip in support for the former suggests voters, especially moderates, have been put off by Merz’s deal with the far-right, which is having an increasing influence on public opinion, according to political analysts.

“The recent collaboration between Germany’s CDU and AfD on immigration policies may have significant implications for Germany’s attractiveness to foreign workers as it introduces uncertainties that could impact Germany’s reputation as a welcoming destination for foreign workers,” warns Groth.

“This unprecedented parliamentary collaboration could deter skilled professionals from considering Germany as a viable destination for employment, thereby exacerbating existing labour shortages in critical sectors as it might create a perception of an inhospitable environment for potential immigrants.”

Expats already living in Germany may also no longer feel welcome and look to return home. 

“This could not only exacerbate the shortage of skilled workers even further but also encourage companies to relocate if they can no longer find suitable staff in Germany, which in turn would have a negative impact on the economy,” Groth adds.

Despite this worry, Groth says German companies are not yet taking measures to ensure the continuation of attracting and retaining foreign talent because it is not clear which coalition might be formed at the end of the election. 

“The parties’ manifestos also focus heavily on asylum policies, which, in my opinion, leaves companies hoping that the migration of skilled workers will not heavily be restricted in most,” she adds.

A 2024 OECD report found Germany to be among the best nations at helping foreign workers adjust to their new surroundings. However, Germans’ attitudes towards migrants represent a significant ongoing barrier to greater integration, the OECD found. 

While more than 40% of Germans hold a positive opinion of the economic impact of migrant workers, their integration into German society often goes unnoticed, leading many natives to have a more negative perception of expats.

This perception has arguably fuelled a rise in support for Germany’s far-right – which won the state elections in Thuringia, east Germany, last September – and has led to a reported increase in xenophobia in workplaces nationwide.