Xenophobic attitudes significantly influence regional immigration patterns in Germany, a new study suggests, ahead of a crunch federal election this Sunday. 

The study from the Institute for Employment Research (IER) found skilled migrants are particularly sensitive to xenophobia, likely because they have stronger aspirations to integrate and identify with their host country, and thus feel greater disappointment when faced with anti-immigrant sentiment. 

Those in West Germany enjoy higher living standards and a low unemployment rate, while those living in the East are twice as likely to have a favourable opinion of the country’s right-wing populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), evidence shows.

Research of migration patterns suggests the AfD’s growing popularity is deterring foreign workers, especially skilled talent, from choosing the East, with around 90% of immigration over the past two decades concentrated in western Germany. 

The IER research also suggests skilled Europeans who have unrestricted access to Germany’s labour market are more likely to avoid certain regions than non-EU migrants whose residence permits are often tied to specific job contracts.

“A country’s positive attitude towards migrants is a key factor in choosing a country to work in,” says Littler’s Martina Schlamp. “The fact that there have been many reports of xenophobic sentiments in Germany – even if these often relate more to illegal immigration than to the immigration of skilled workers – it does not paint a picture of an open culture in Germany that welcomes skilled workers from abroad.”

Going into Sunday’s election, the AfD is running in second place, with a little over 20% of the national vote. Historically, Germany’s mainstream political parties have vowed never to work in coalition with far-right parties. But if one-in-five voters back the AfD this weekend, some foreign workers might rethink their futures in Germany.

“Reports of the strengthening of right-wing parties and their attitudes towards foreigners, the language they use in their election campaigns, and the xenophobia of these parties are further increasing the existing problems related to the shortage of skilled workers,” says Schlamp.

“The outcome of the election will certainly also be a decisive factor for foreign professionals, especially those in high demand.”

Regardless of the outcome this weekend, Germany’s leaders will have to consider how to remain a truly attractive destination for skilled foreign talent. For Schlamp, the process of applying for a visa or residency permit needs changing.

“Applying for a visa or permit is one of the first experiences skilled migrants have with the country when they decide to move to Germany – and in most cases the situation at the authorities does not give the impression that they are welcome,” Schlamp says. 

“The authorities are often understaffed, which means that application procedures often take a very long time, there are long waits for appointments and for applications to be processed, and communication with the authorities is often not possible.”

In addition, procedures are often quite bureaucratic, with different authorities involved and communication between them taking a long time as it is not digitised, she adds. 

“There are also reports that skilled migrants feel discriminated against by the authorities in Germany or when looking for accommodation,” Schlamp continues. 

“Germany must therefore urgently improve the situation with the authorities, in particular by increasing the number of staff, simplifying, and digitising procedures, and enabling communication with the authorities, especially in English – which is unfortunately still not the standard.”  

Germany must also provide better support for the integration of skilled migrants. 

“More integration opportunities need to be provided, especially in more rural areas or smaller towns,” says Schlamp. “Integration and language courses, mentoring programmes, and support in finding accommodation can all help skilled migrants to settle down quickly and feel comfortable in Germany.”

Blue card changes

Germany recently introduced changes to its EU Blue Card scheme with the aim of making Europe’s largest economy more attractive to skilled foreigners. 

As of January 2025, the standard minimum salary has been lowered to €48,300 (£39,980) and the reduced threshold for shortage occupations and career starters is now €43,759.80 (£36,222).

An expanded List of Shortage Professions now includes construction managers and teachers. Skilled workers can also now apply for certain IT roles with relevant work experience comparable to a university degree.

In addition, the qualification of the skilled worker no longer has to relate to the specific position they are working in, which provides much more flexibility when looking for a new job.

Blue Card holders can now also work in other members states for short periods – a maximum of 90 days within a 180-day period – if the work is related to their actual employment. This means card holders can also participate in workation programmes.

The waiting period for a permanent residence permit has been reduced to 27 months for Blue Card holders with a basic knowledge of German (A1 level) and 21 months for those with B1 level.

“This gives foreign skilled workers security as they can obtain a permanent residence permit quite quickly,” says Schlamp. “It has also become easier for Blue Card holders to change employers in Germany, as prior permission from the immigration authorities is no longer required, which can take several weeks. 

“The change of employer only needs to be reported to the authorities in the first year of employment, and the authorities can only suspend or deny the change within 30 days. This gives skilled workers even more flexibility in the German labour market.”

The 2025 updates build on Germany’s Skilled Immigration Act, which came into effect in November 2023 and aims enhances labour market flexibility by allowing workers to transition between industries.